Ground troops have been marked as the new red line. The red line that the Trump Administration will not cross according to those of the president’s supporters who cling to hope that our leadership has not been completely overtaken by neoconservative ideology. That last glimmer of hope appears to soon be extinguished as we hear news that the Pentagon is preparing plans for a ground troop invasion of Iran in the midst of attempts at negotiation.
The administration has found itself in a tough spot. The Strait of Hormuz is greatly impeded, increasing oil prices and frustrating other allies in the region who are heavily affected by the closure. Allies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and India have voiced their displeasure with this byproduct of the conflict. President Trump has stated that he is seeking the surrender of Iran. Leaders in Iran have indicated that they will not allow themselves to be humiliated. This means there will have to be more military action to bring about the desired surrender.
The president has indicated that there are no plans for ground troops in Iran, although he has also stated that he would not tell the media if that was his plan. This is consistent with his long time philosophy of not letting the enemy know the plan. It seems the president wants the American people to believe he is NOT sending ground troops.
This is wise because of the significant swath of Americans who oppose this war. According to a Marist poll, 56% of Americans oppose the conflict with Iran. However, Trump may not have a choice based on the current circumstances. With the Strait impeded, ally nations are growing frustrated, which limits support. This is also creating a global rise in oil prices. This is the leverage Iran possesses, and they are using it. Though Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated to Trump that regime change in Iran would be easy, he clearly was flat out wrong.
Another indicator of imminent ground troops is Trump’s outward support for the hawks of the right. On Friday, we saw Trump put out a truth on his Truth Social account telling his audience to watch Mark Levin’s show on Fox News that night. Levin is a well-known jewish warhawk who has been very aggressive in his tone on this war. In his show that night, Levin advocated heavily for ground troops to be sent to Iran. This brings the obvious question: Did Trump do that on purpose? Levin may have made the push for ground troops because he knew the president had promoted his show that day. But it could be that the president knew what he was going to say and is now conditioning the American people for a ground troops invasion in Iran.
At the moment, a ground troops deployment is extremely unpopular, with 74% of Americans opposing such a measure according to the Boston Globe, with only 7% supporting large-scale ground troops according to Reuters.
If Trump does indeed move forward with sending ground troops into Iran, that signals that he has given up on the idea of a quick victory. That means this will be yet another long term entanglement, the exact type of entanglement the president long promised he would never take part. This puts him in the George W. Bush camp: just another disappointing Republican president. This would be a major setback for the Republican Party and the decimation of a legacy.
